Photo by Gabija Morkunaite
Ornela Ramasauskaite
From the opulent palaces of Renaissance Italy to Silicon Valley’s sleek, modern boardrooms, art has always been the silent yet eloquent testimony to wealth, intellect, and taste. As an international art market expert, I have seen firsthand how the discerning affluent integrate art into their lives, not merely as decor but as a statement of their personal and often corporate ethos. My journey recently took me to Azerbaijan as a Cultural Economy expert, where I spent some time in Shusha and two invigorating months in Baku, analyzing an art market brimming with untapped potential. I am convinced of what I’ve seen – something is stirring in the Land of Fire, and it goes beyond mere aesthetics into the realm of wise, sustainable investment: that’s why I am returning and advocating the global potential of the art market of Azerbaijan.
Historically, the intrinsic relationship between art and affluence has always been evident. Walk into any established museum in Paris, New York, or Buenos Aires, and what you encounter is not just an array of beautiful objects but a tapestry of wealth and power through the ages. Similarly, a walk-through of corporate headquarters often reveals carefully curated collections that do more than just beautify spaces; they proclaim a corporate culture, an aesthetic sensibility, and often, an investment acumen.
It’s worth mentioning here that affluence loves company. Cities that are booming business hubs or centres of political power also naturally draw the arts and cultural investments. But what happens when a less obvious locale emerges as a contender on the world stage, an understated gem with a unique blend of talent and opportunity? What happens when that locale is Azerbaijan?
Azerbaijan stands as an intriguing landscape of untapped possibility. My recent work in Baku opened my eyes to an art scene rich in history but also incredibly forward-looking. The nation is teeming with artists of international calibre whose works are yet to command the prices they deserve, representing an unmissable investment opportunity. For early investors, the upside is immense. Imagine being one of the first to invest in a Basquiat or a Banksy before the rest of the world caught on—that’s the level of potential we’re talking about.
Let’s look into statistics – following the prestigious art market report by Art Basel and UBS (2023) – the art market has been on a roller coaster ride over the last several years, reflecting not just the tastes and preferences of collectors but also broader economic, political, and even public health trends. After seeing a severe contraction in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with sales plunging to $50.3 billion – akin to lows seen during the global financial crisis of 2009 – the art trade rebounded in 2021 to $65.9 billion. This recovery was driven by the quick adoption of digital channels for trading art and significant buying from high-net-worth (HNW) individuals whose wealth expanded during the pandemic.
Entering 2022, optimism was high. The market started the year strong, buoyed by predictions of a robust sales boom as in-person art fairs, auctions, and exhibitions came back to life. However, the actual narrative turned out to be more complex. Various challenges, including political and economic instability, the war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, supply issues, and looming recessions in key markets like the US, dampened sales growth. Furthermore, China’s strict zero-COVID policies led to event cancellations that heavily affected the art market.
If we trace back to the last major recession in 2009, the market had seen a 36% fall in sales to $39.5 billion. But it bounced back robustly in 2010 and 2011, mainly due to a booming Chinese market and strong US sales. This time, the pandemic contraction was less severe year-on-year compared to 2009, thanks partly to online sales and the massive increase in wealth among billionaires in specific sectors like technology, e-commerce, and healthcare. Despite some deceleration in 2022, the number of billionaires and their combined wealth has still more than doubled in the last decade, and this concentration of high-end wealth has arguably helped the art market navigate the rough waters of the pandemic more effectively.
In a scenario indicative of cautious optimism, the global art market closed 2022 with an overall 3% year-on-year increase, valued at approximately $67.8 billion. This rebound places it comfortably above the pre-pandemic level seen in 2019. Following a vigorous 31% upswing in sales in 2021, the trend in 2022 was less robust but still positive, with a marginal 1% uptick to 37.8 million transactions. There has been an increase in emerging artists and online sales, democratizing the entry into art investment. Art advisors’ activities chiefly fueled this increment, casting them as the market’s unsung heroes.
According to Masterworks.io, an investment platform that allows people to buy and sell shares representing ownership of individual paintings, the art market has outperformed the S&P 500 by over 180% from 2000 to 2018. And this isn’t just confined to the Picassos and the Van Goghs of the world. Emerging artists, especially those from untapped markets, offer an exciting prospect for growth at a fraction of the entry cost.
You can find some worth watching contemporary artists in Azerbaijan, showcasing a level of talent and creativity that rivals that of established global players. Yet their works are available at price points, making them highly accessible to new collectors. This creates a ground-floor opportunity for those looking to diversify their portfolio with art assets. But before you start shopping for your next masterpiece, it’s critical to consult an art advisor or market expert. Especially in emerging markets like Azerbaijan, expert guidance can make the difference between a savvy investment and a costly mistake. With globalized markets and the digitization of art sales, the opportunities for international investments are vast. However, the ‘devil is in the details,’ and having an expert by your side can help navigate the complexities of valuation, provenance, and market trends, ensuring that your investment is emotionally satisfying and financially rewarding.
Data analytics and real-time market trends are now at the fingertips of art advisors and experienced, seasoned and aspiring investors. This ‘big data’ moment for the art world allows for predictive analytics, once the sole domain of stock markets and weather forecasts. Yet, as we skim through Artprice’s latest AMCI indicators, the art market continues to dance to its distinctive rhythm – a blend of logical data and impassioned impulse. If history and current innovative disruptions tell us anything, the art market is far from static. It’s a dynamic force, driven not just by dollars or pounds but by an insatiable appetite for beauty, narrative, and the indomitable spirit of human creativity. And that is an investment that transcends economic downturns. Azerbaijan, this opportunity awaits with open arms, promising aesthetic pleasure and the thrill of an intelligent, potentially lucrative investment.
Art doesn’t just make financial sense; it has an unmatched emotional and aesthetic pleasure. During times of crisis, like the one we’ve recently lived through, the emotional comfort that art provides has been likened to a form of ’emotional investment,’ according to experts in psychology. Moreover, the aesthetic of a space, shaped by art, impacts everything from employee productivity to customer impressions in a corporate setting. So whether hanging on the walls of your home or gracing a corporate lobby, art enriches life in multifaceted ways.
I want to circle back to Azerbaijan again, a land of untold artistic richness yet to be fully explored by the world at large. The country represents the next frontier for art investors seeking high returns, aesthetic enjoyment, and portfolio diversification. The recent Lifestyle Index, highlighting the trends in global affluence, gives us valuable insights and adds a sense of urgency to seize opportunities where they present themselves. And suppose you’re wondering what makes Azerbaijan an opportunity versus other emerging markets. In that case, the unique blend of Eastern and Western influences, an affordable cost of living that allows for more sustainable investment growth, and a burgeoning scene of innovation and modernity complements its rich history.
In conclusion, as the world stands on the brink of several tipping points – economic, environmental, and social – art remains a constant. It’s a constant companion to the affluent, a source of emotional richness, a haven for investors, and perhaps most intriguingly, an untapped well in burgeoning markets like Azerbaijan. So, as we look ahead into an uncertain yet promising future, let’s not underestimate the power of art to reflect the world we live in and enrich it in ways of new interest and potential wealth.